Vote Together polling across 37 swing ridings

Note: Please see below for the latest updated polling results in nine ridings.

Wave 1 - August: Leadnow releases local riding polls in 13 key swing ridings


Wave 2 - September 22nd: 31 local polls in ridings where Conservatives could win because of vote splitting between the NDP, Liberals and Greens

Before we get into the results, we just want to say a huge thank you to the thousands of people across Canada who donated to fund these polls. This simply would not have been possible without you.[1]

First, some context. After dipping in the national polls in early September, the Conservatives have now bounced back. National polls now show a tight 3-way race between the NDP, Liberals and Conservatives. And a recent seat projection based on an aggregate of polls shows the Conservatives projected to win 119 seats, the NDP projected to win 113 seats and the Liberals projected to win 105 seats.[2]

With almost four weeks left in the campaign, the results of our in-riding polls in Conservative swing ridings show that a majority of people in each one of these ridings want change. But in many ridings Harper could still win because of local vote splitting caused by our broken “first-past-the-post” voting system.

Over 65,000 people across the country have already signed the Vote Together pledge to select and support the best local candidate to defeat the Conservative. If we vote together we can end 10 years of Harper rule - but we need to keep building momentum in the decisive weeks to come.

Check out the results of our latest local polling, and then please share this post far and wide to inspire people to sign the Vote Together pledge and join the campaign.



We’ll keep you updated about your riding, send you key actions over the coming weeks, and give you the information you need to make your best local decision.

Thank you for all that you do.

Matthew, on behalf of the Leadnow team


Leadnow’s local polling was conducted by Environics, between September 18-21. While the 31 ridings are spread across the country, they do not include any ridings in Quebec. For information about the methodology, sample sizes, and margins of error, see the report from Environics. For a detailed breakdown of the results, see the table of results across all 31 ridings, the individual tables for each riding, and a summary of undecided numbers (the undecided numbers is a summary produced by Leadnow using the raw data in the previous tables, and is not an Environics document). For media inquiries, click here.

For the results from the 2006, 2008, and 2011 elections, as well as more information about each riding, together with current polling results, see the individual riding pages below:

Atlantic

Ontario

Prairies

British Columbia

Territories


Wave 3 - October 6th: Updated local polling in four of the swing ridings we polled in September

For the methodology, sample sizes, and margins of error for these four new polls, see the report from Environics. For a detailed breakdown of the results in each riding, see the individual riding tables.

Thank you once again to the support of the thousands of Canadians chipping in to make our local polling possible.


Wave 4 - October 13th: Today we're releasing new local polling in nine swing ridings

British Columbia

Ontario

For the methodology, sample sizes, and margins of error for these nine new polls, see the report from Environics. For a detailed breakdown of the results in each riding, see the individual riding tables.

Thank you once again to the support of the thousands of Canadians who contributed to make our local polling possible.


Sources:

[1] Leadnow's local polling was funded by generous donations from nearly 3,000 Canadians, mostly $10 and $20 online via https://www.leadnow.ca/local-polling. In some ridings, polls were directly funded by generous individuals or small groups of donors eager to see their riding polled. We're able to run local riding polls in any Conservative swing riding as part of the Vote Together campaign, where local donors contribute the full cost of the poll, and our final round of polling will be shortly before election day. To donate to Leadnow's riding-level polling in general, click here, or if you would like to fund the cost of a local poll specifically for your riding, please contact us at leadnow@leadnow.ca

[2] CBC Poll Tracker, viewed on Tuesday, September 22nd
http://www.cbc.ca/news2/interactives/poll-tracker/2015/